I think your analysis is right, but there is another pernicious issue.
We now inhabit a world where no one is encouraged or even expected to do a trade (well except for the modern slave caste: illegals). The result is lots of HS grads who should be getting an Electricians degree instead trying to do a 4 year program.
The result not only inflates tuition cost, but also leads to 'degree inflation', that is everyone now has a degree. Therefore, this amps up the arms race so a Bachelors is no longer special, thus maybe a Masters or PhD is needed.
The colleges are all too happy to force kids into a lifetime of debt to sell them useless basket weaving and gender studies degrees.
We are all looking for guarantees. Degrees were insurance, but they begin to resemble protection money.
And while it's definitely true that lifetime income expectations are higher for salaried people, I wonder if they're high enough to offset the negative compound interest most people are saddled with during their 20's.
I think we may be playing fast and loose with our comparisons elsewhere too. There's sort of an image that going to college for 4 or 6 years is a huge investment of energy in your future, and the alternative is to just take 1 year of trade school and then skip to the post-graduation part of on-the-job learning. Like we paused the clock for the college people to catch up?
If someone put half the time and energy into trade school + life skills + finances that we expect of college students, I think they'd turn out pretty okay. Stressing about money is expensive. Starting your nest egg eight years late is also expensive. If you make your early lead count for something, I don't expect too many regrets later on.
Electricians/plumbers/HVAC/carpenters usually all have problems with mobility by the time they hit 50s, and they work in terrible environments and have to drive all day.
How much is one’s health and ability to move around in older age worth? How much is it worth to not have to drive around all day and come home on a regular schedule?
We now inhabit a world where no one is encouraged or even expected to do a trade (well except for the modern slave caste: illegals). The result is lots of HS grads who should be getting an Electricians degree instead trying to do a 4 year program.
The result not only inflates tuition cost, but also leads to 'degree inflation', that is everyone now has a degree. Therefore, this amps up the arms race so a Bachelors is no longer special, thus maybe a Masters or PhD is needed.
The colleges are all too happy to force kids into a lifetime of debt to sell them useless basket weaving and gender studies degrees.